Or is Victor Orbán “going”?

In Hungary, opposition activists and journalists explain why the US’s “Orbánisation” may fail and how a former ally could end the Hungarian prime minister’s 15-year rule. Is Victor Orbán Going? Ashifa Kassam for The Guardian and we translated Flora Garamvolgyi 's article for you.

On a sunny afternoon in Budapest, a group of reporters gathered at the back entrance of a luxury hotel called the Dorothea. The hotel is located between a Madame Tussauds wax museum and a cheap clothing store. Many of the reporters had been outside the hotel for hours, hoping to confirm that Donald Trump Jr. was inside. News of his visit had leaked two days earlier, but much of his schedule remained a mystery. It was known only that he would meet with the Hungarian foreign minister.

Rumors had circulated that Trump Jr. would give a closed-door speech on building bridges between governments and the private sector at the five-star hotel, a venue said to be owned by the son-in-law of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Although not many details have emerged from the visit, it was important in showing the disproportionate role that this small Central European country of 9.6 million plays in U.S. politics.

Trump and his circle have long praised Orbán’s Hungary, idealizing it as a “Christian conservative Disneyland.” This admiration for the alliance of populism and Christianity has continued even as the country has plummeted in press freedom, is alleged to be no longer a full democracy, and has become the most corrupt country in the European Union.

“Modern Hungary is not just a model for conservative governance, it is the real model ,” said Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation think tank, who masterminded the far-right “Project 2025” that Trump is preparing to lead to a second term.

Orbán has described Hungary as a “petri dish for illiberal governance”. Former Trump advisor Steve Bannon praised him as “Trump before Trump” and US Vice President JD Vance cited Orbán’s purge of gender studies at universities as a model to follow.

“He’s a great leader, a very strong man,” Trump said of Orbán last year. “Some people don’t like him because he’s too strong. But it’s good to have a strong man running the country,” he added.

Since Trump began his second term in January, admiration for Orbán has turned to imitation. Like Orbán, Trump has sought to use state power to target opponents, adopt a dark rhetoric that demonizes political opponents and purges institutions of their “woke” influence, a process experts have described as the “Orbánification of the United States.”

But for human rights defenders, journalists and activists in Hungary, the process is eerily familiar. Having spent 15 years battling one of the most successful populist leaders in the modern world, they have now become a guidebook for the world on how to resist it.

András Kádár from the Hungarian Helsinki Committee says:

"Sometimes it's tempting to say 'let's make this concession and it'll go away'. But the Hungarian example shows that they always go one step further. Each time we reach a new low. It's very important to fight against every inch of this process."

According to Kádár, Orbán is following in the footsteps of Erdoğan and Putin. But the reason why he has attracted the US’s attention is different:

"This was a conscious choice by a fully-fledged democracy at the heart of the European Union. It has no equivalent."

Orbán targeted the judiciary, changed the electoral law in his favor, abolished gender studies at universities, and handed over public institutions to loyalists. Government contracts were given to pro-government business people, and media supporting the government were subsidized. Critical media were either shut down or turned over to pro-government supporters and turned into propaganda tools. Today, 80 percent of Hungarian media is under the influence of Fidesz.

“Everything is covered up with hate propaganda,” says Kádár.

"First Brussels and the EU, then migrants were targeted. They say that unchecked powers are needed to protect the people against these enemies."

Péter Krekó of the Political Capital think tank in Budapest says:

"What happened in the US is faster. In our country, it was the frog model, which is slowly boiling water. There, it's like a coup."

Hungary, the most democratic country in the region in the early 2000s, is today in the worst situation. The state's propaganda apparatus continues to effectively manipulate public opinion.

Journalist and LGBTI+ activist Ádám András Kanicsár explains:

"The government now decides who is a 'real Hungarian'. Right now, the conditions for being a real Hungarian are: You have to have two children, you have to be white and Christian, you have to be married and have a job. Otherwise, you are not acceptable."

This year, the government banned all LGBTI+ events. Kanicsár says the community has been reluctant to defend its rights for a long time. Now they are just defending it, busy explaining their rights.

The constitutional amendment's recognition of only two genders also targeted trans activist Lilla Hübsch:

"My existence right now is unconstitutional. This is just crazy."

According to Kanicsár, in the past many believed that progress was inevitable:

"We think that history will always move forward, that we will become more liberal and democratic. But rights can be lost. It hurts a lot when you lose them."

The banning of the Budapest Pride March, which is preparing to celebrate its 30th anniversary, is a striking example of this situation.

But there is still hope. Ahead of elections in 2026, Orbán faces a serious opponent for the first time: former Fidesz leader Péter Magyar. According to recent polls, Orbán could lose power.

Here's what Péter Erdélyi, founder of the Budapest-based Center for Sustainable Media, says:

"For the first time in 15 years there is a serious rival. But this is also a very dangerous time."

This year, Orbán declared war on what he called his “shadow army” of foreign-backed politicians, journalists and NGOs, with a new bill that he claims aims to “strangle and starve” independent media and civil society.

Transparency International called the law a “dark turning point”, while the Hungarian Helsinki Committee said that if it passed, “independent voices would be completely silenced”.

Trump’s return to the White House has further complicated the situation, according to Erdélyi:

“For years, the US was a balancing force against authoritarian leaders in Central Europe. Now it is moving away from multilateralism and transatlantic relations.”

According to Miklós Ligeti of Transparency International Hungary, Péter Magyar's Tisza movement has shaken up politics and made corruption a top priority for the public.

Magyar has influenced the public through social media and rallies linking the deterioration of health and education to corruption. As the economy has deteriorated, Orbán’s shield of “economic success” has crumbled.

Let's listen to Márton Gulyás, a left-leaning political commentator and host of the YouTube channel Partizán :

"Debts, inflation, food prices are high. Salaries have stopped. The government is in a very dangerous phase."

New media models have managed to overcome Orbán’s pressure. András Pethő, founder of Direkt36, runs an independent publication without investors to stay away from government pressure.

In 2018, democracy was dealt a blow by laws criminalising lawyers who assist refugees. In 2022, the European Parliament declared that Hungary was no longer a full democracy.

But many people think Hungary cannot be a model for the United States.

Zoltán Adam says:

"Here, if you get a two-thirds majority in parliament, you can do anything. This is a country of complete control. It's not the totalitarianism of the 20th century, but all institutions are in the hands of the government."

The federal structure of the United States provides protection against such a threat.

“Trump cannot control the governor of Massachusetts or the state of California.”

A former Fidesz member, who asked not to be named, said Orbán's image in the US was created by the Hungarian government:

“The gender war, the ‘woke’ concepts are American imports. Hungary is much more homogeneous and backward.”

According to him, if Orbán loses power, this system will collapse:

"They wrote the rules for themselves. If they lose, it all changes."

Following these comments, Orbán's government requested for the third time that the European Parliament lift the immunity of Péter Magyar, an initiative that Magyar described as an attempt to prevent him from running in the elections with false accusations against him.

The Guardian's request for comment from the government was rejected on the grounds of time constraints.

According to investigative journalist Szabolcs Panyi, Orbán is actually using family and immigration policies merely for “marketing”:

“In reality, Orbán’s power runs completely counter to US Republican values: state control, dependence on China and Russia…”

In recent weeks, there has been talk that Trump's tariffs could hit the Hungarian economy.

“This could be Orbán’s tragedy,” Panyi says.

“Just when all the stars are aligned and he is about to declare himself as the leader of the global right-wing wave, he may be losing popular support at home.”